Wells Sees 60-70% Loss Severity in Option-ARMs

If 61% of the $750 billion in Option ARMs default, and with a 50% loss severity, the losses to lenders will be about $225 billion – far less than for subprime, but still a huge problem. The key problem with Option ARMs is that they were used as affordability products, mostly in California and Florida, because buyers couldn’t qualify for fixed.

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60 70 80 S GSE Delinquency Rates FREDDIE MAC (60+ DAY). excluding REOs) for periods prior to 3Q17, Wells Fargo CMBS research for 4Q17-1Q19 CMBS delinquency rates. delinquency rates for Fannie Mae, Fixed severity loss in a credit event will be based on UPB of the related mortgage loan.

Averted loss (mn usd) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1 7 13 19 Total climate risk 2600 mn USD Cost-efcient measures Non-cost-efcient Cost-efcient adaptation Residual loss 2030 Reduced loss per USD invested (USD) China: Drought risk to agriculture Not all losses are avoidable, especially those caused by low frequency, high severity events.

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Wells Sees 60-70% Loss Severity in Option-ARMs The Norris Group Real Estate News Roundup 10/9/09 – A new wells fargo report projects big losses due to ALT-A and Option arm recasts. congress doubts that Treasury Department’s $50 billion loan-modification program will help 3-4 million foreclosures.

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Averted loss (mn USD) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1 7 13 19 Total climate risk 2600 mn USD Cost-efcient measures Non-cost-efcient Cost-efcient adaptation Residual loss 2030 Reduced loss per USD invested (USD) China: Drought risk to agriculture Not all losses are avoidable, especially those caused by low frequency, high severity events.

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Research by Wells Fargo projects a high rate of failure in Option ARMs over the next several years, but it does not expect this to have a significant impact on home price appreciation. While foreclosure sales are expected to peak next year, the report authors believe the worst of the damage has.

Fixed or Variable Rate - Which Is Better? The third-quarter credit-loss provision soared 60% from a year earlier, to $130 million, and its chargeoffs rose tenfold, to $97.6 million. In its filing Monday, Downey blamed "an increase in loss severity from the continuing decline in housing values that provide the underlying collateral for our loans."

Wells economist: Foreclosure supply points to ‘long, arduous’ recovery